Will fossil fuel last for ever ?

Question of how longer we can use fossile fuels like petroleum, diesel,LPG, etc is a big question mark infrond of us. Petroleum resources are the only major mineral commodities where many experts fear resource depletion will produce significant scarcities over the next several decades. More specifically, it proposes to construct cumulative availability curves to assess the future availability of conventional petroleum (oil, gas, and natural gas liquids) and three unconventional sources of liquids (heavy oil, oil sands, and oil shale). Petroleum resources in this study are defined by the combination of these conventional and unconventional resources. Unconventional gas, such as tight gas sands, is not assessed since the focus is on sources of liquids (tight gas sands are analyzed in Aguilera et al., 2008). Nonetheless, the present study does assess conventional gas since it is part of the 'conventional petroleum' definition given by the U.S. Geological Survey in USGS (2000).

This analysis is global in its scope, considering petroleum resources for the entire world. In addition, it assumes that society can over time substitute among different types of conventional and unconventional resources.

Two concerns or questions are of particular interest. First, is depletion likely to create significant scarcities of petroleum resources over the next several decades? Among the pessimists, who believe this will be the case, are Deffeyes (2001), Campbell and Laherrere (1998), Goodstein (2004), Banks (2005), Simmons (2005), and Tertzakian (2006). On the other side are the optimists, who are less concerned. They include Adelman et al. (1983), Adelman and Watkins (2008), Economides and Oligney (2000), Hefner (2002), Lynch (2005), Radetzki (2002), and Watkins (2006). The optimists view petroleum resources as working inventories that are constantly being renewed as they are extracted. The pessimists' point out that petroleum resources are fixed physical stocks that will eventually be depleted. Bentley and Boyle (2007) provide descriptions of the methodologies used by petroleum supply forecasters, including pessimists and optimists. The authors also discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the models.

The second question of interest is if society will experience a smooth or difficult transition as it moves from its current dependency on conventional petroleum to unconventional sources of liquids and other alternative energy sources. In particular, does a transition from conventional petroleum to alternative energy sources imply sharply higher energy prices with considerable economic dislocation as traditional users are forced to cutback their consumption?